The energy storage industry is an important part of my country's strategic emerging industries, and the development of energy storage is also an important means of supporting my country's energy transformation and carbon neutrality goals. In recent years, my country has introduced a considerable number of encouraging and supporting policies to accelerate the rapid development of the energy storage industry and promote the scale of the industry. In terms of communication base station energy storage, industry policies are mainly focused on continuously promoting the construction of 5G base stations and improving 5G network coverage. Large-scale communication infrastructure construction has brought about large-scale communication base station energy storage battery demand, providing a broad market space for the development of the energy storage industry.
1. Current status of the development of the energy storage battery industry
Broadly speaking, energy storage includes three types: electrical energy storage, thermal energy storage, and hydrogen energy storage, of which electrical energy storage is the most important. Based on technical principles, electrical energy storage is further divided into electrochemical energy storage, mechanical energy storage, and electromagnetic energy storage. Among all types of energy storage, electrochemical energy storage with energy storage batteries as the core is the energy storage technology with the widest application range and the greatest development potential.
The essence of electrochemical energy storage is to use secondary batteries to store energy. The mainstream secondary batteries for energy storage are lithium-ion batteries and lead-acid batteries. Among them, lithium-ion batteries dominate the field of energy storage batteries with their advantages such as high energy density, long cycle life, and no memory effect. Shipments have continued to increase in recent years. In 2022, my country's energy storage lithium-ion battery shipments reached 130GWh, a significant year-on-year increase of 170.8%. In 2023, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments reached 185GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. It is expected to continue to grow in the future.
My country's energy storage lithium-ion battery shipments from 2018 to 2023
In terms of lead-acid energy storage batteries, according to the total production data of lead-acid batteries in my country and the downstream market structure data of lead-acid batteries in my country, the shipment volume of lead-acid energy storage batteries in my country reached 31.83 million kVAh in 2020 (data center energy storage is not included in the statistical caliber). Based on the inherent safety and economic advantages of lead-acid energy storage batteries, lead-acid batteries still maintain strong competitiveness in specific fields such as communication base stations and data centers.
2. Development of energy storage battery sub-industry and demand prospect forecast
Based on application scenarios, energy storage batteries can be subdivided into communication base station energy storage batteries, data center energy storage batteries, household energy storage batteries and power energy storage batteries.
(1) Communication base station energy storage batteries
Communication base stations are the most critical infrastructure in mobile communication networks. Their main function is to provide wireless coverage, that is, to achieve wireless signal transmission between wired communication networks and wireless terminals. The main function of communication base station energy storage batteries is to provide power to key communication base station equipment during power outages. They play an important role in the stable operation of communication base stations, and their market size is directly related to the construction scale of communication base stations. It is estimated that by 2030, the cumulative market demand for communication base station energy storage batteries in China will reach 142.7GWh.
(2) Data center energy storage batteries
Data center energy storage batteries have extremely high safety requirements, and the placement space can usually be determined independently. Therefore, the requirements for battery energy density and volume are relatively flexible. Lead-acid batteries are still the mainstream choice in the field of data center energy storage due to their high safety and low cost. At present, the market share of lead-acid batteries in my country's data center energy storage field exceeds 90%, and the penetration rate of lithium-ion batteries is less than 10%. Excluding possible policy influences, the possibility of lead-acid batteries being replaced by lithium-ion batteries on a large scale in the short term is low. At present, new generation information technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence are developing rapidly, and the digital economy is booming. Under the national strategy of "Eastern Data and Western Computing", industries related to the data center industry chain will usher in rapid development. In the future, the contribution of the digital economy to economic growth will continue to increase, and the scale of data center construction will continue to maintain steady growth, providing a broad market space for energy storage batteries.
(3) Household energy storage battery
Since 2021, electricity prices in major regions around the world have risen significantly under the impact of the energy inflation crisis and geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe. Residents’ energy expenditure costs in some overseas countries have increased significantly. The economics of household energy storage have become prominent. Household energy storage represented by Europe and the United States has The energy storage market demand is rising rapidly. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Time-of-Use Electricity Pricing Mechanism" in 2021, proposing to further widen the peak-valley electricity price difference, establish and improve peak electricity prices, seasonal electricity prices and other mechanisms to realize the commercial value of household energy storage in China. Provide further space.
Currently, only a few developed countries in Europe and the United States have a relatively fast development of industrial and commercial energy storage. my country as a whole is still in the early stages of development. Market demand is constantly being cultivated. Driven by both policies and demand, domestic industrial and commercial energy storage will accelerate its commercialization process in the future, and the market space is expected to open up further. It is expected that domestic industrial and commercial energy storage battery shipments will exceed 15GWh in 2025.
(4) Power storage batteries
In recent years, with the continuous increase in the proportion of renewable energy power generation such as photovoltaic and wind power and the continuous stimulation of supporting policies, the shipment volume of power storage products in my country has shown a rapid growth trend. In 2023, China's power storage lithium battery shipments reached 167GWh, a year-on-year increase of 81.5%. Among them, the trend of large-scale power storage cells is obvious. In 2023, the penetration rate of 280Ah square batteries in power storage projects exceeded 80%, and more than 30 large-capacity cells exceeding 300Ah have been released. It is expected that by 2025, against the background of the continuous increase in the demand for renewable energy grid connection at home and abroad, the shipment volume of power storage lithium-ion batteries in my country will reach 300.0GWh.
4. Development trends of energy storage battery industry
The three major trends in the development of the energy storage battery industry are: lithium-ion batteries are developing rapidly, and market penetration is expected to further increase; lead-acid battery technology is mature, and specific application fields will still occupy a mainstream position in the short term; sodium-ion battery research has made significant progress, or It can achieve large-scale application in the energy storage market.
5. Energy storage batteries have great growth potential
The vigorous development of new energy vehicles has fostered a relatively complete lithium battery industry chain, providing scale conditions for low-cost and reliable electrochemical energy storage. In addition to new energy vehicles, energy storage batteries are a blue ocean market with great growth potential. In order to promote the rapid development of my country's energy storage industry, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Energy Storage Technology and Industry" in September 2017. This opinion is the first guiding policy for my country's energy storage industry, and clearly puts forward the development path of the energy storage industry in the next ten years.
From the perspective of energy storage application, the increase in the proportion of new energy power generation and charging piles at the power consumption end, 5G base stations, data centers, etc. have put forward higher requirements for the regulation capacity and energy storage of the power grid. The energy storage market is mainly for communication energy storage and power energy storage.
From the perspective of energy storage technology categories, batteries are the most efficient energy storage method. Lithium-ion batteries have excellent properties such as low pollution, high energy density, long cycle life, and high rate. As their costs gradually decrease, the economic benefits of lithium-ion batteries begin to stand out. New battery energy storage is increasingly using lithium-ion batteries, and gradually replacing existing lead-acid batteries, and their application in the energy storage market is becoming more and more extensive.
According to the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration on July 15, 2021, energy storage is an important technology and basic equipment to support the new power system. It is of great significance to promote the green transformation of energy, respond to extreme events, ensure energy security, promote high-quality energy development, and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. By 2025, new energy storage will shift from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development, and new energy storage will play a significant role in promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the energy field. By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented. New energy storage has become one of the key supports for carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the energy field.
As the cost of lithium batteries continues to decline and energy storage application scenarios gradually mature, the lithium battery energy storage market at home and abroad is growing rapidly. As the global 5G commercialization speed further increases, the rise of the energy Internet drives the demand for energy storage, and the government increases its policy implementation in energy storage fields such as wind storage, solar storage, and UPS energy storage, the energy storage market will usher in a rapid development stage in the future. Benefiting from the rapid development of the energy storage market, it is expected to reach the TWh level around 2030. In 2040, the cumulative installed capacity of global energy storage batteries will reach 2,850GWh. Overall, my country's lithium-ion energy storage battery industry has entered the initial stage of rapid development and is expected to achieve large-scale growth in the future.