① Development of the energy storage industry
According to incomplete statistics from the Global Energy Storage Project Database of the Energy Storage Committee of the China Energy Research Association/Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance (CNESA), by the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of power storage projects put into operation worldwide will be 289.2GW, with an annual growth rate of 21.9%. The cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage has dropped significantly, falling below 70% for the first time, a decrease of 12.3 percentage points compared with the same period in 2022. The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage has reached 91.3GW, nearly twice that of the same period in 2022. Among them, lithium-ion batteries continue to grow rapidly, with an annual growth rate of more than 100%.
According to incomplete statistics from the CNESA Global Energy Storage Database, by the end of 2023, China's cumulative installed capacity of power storage projects in operation was 86.5GW, accounting for 30% of the global market, a year-on-year increase of 45%. The cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage also fell below 60% for the first time, down 17.7 percentage points from the same period in 2022; the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage exceeded 30GW for the first time, with a power scale of 34.5GW and an energy scale of 74.5GWh, with both power and energy scales increasing by more than 150% year-on-year.
② Future development trend of energy storage industry
Energy storage is a strong support for building a new power system. With the maturity of energy storage technology, the cost is gradually reduced, and the demand for industrial and commercial users to install energy storage systems is gradually strong. In scenes such as shopping malls or charging stations, the start and stop time of loads is relatively concentrated, which often leads to transformer overload; in industrial production, large load start and stop leading to excess demand also occurs; in remote areas or islands without stable power grids, energy storage systems can be installed to replace diesel generators or support stable loads to improve the stability of power supply.
From the user side, my country's electricity substitution rate will be further improved, including the access of electric vehicles, which shows that there is still room for growth in electricity consumption. From the power supply side and the grid side, new energy represented by wind energy and solar energy has the characteristics of intermittent and fluctuating. The large-scale access of new energy will bring great pressure to the grid. Independent energy storage power stations are becoming the mainstream form of high-power energy storage products.
Therefore, it is a general trend for industry, commerce and users to equip themselves with energy storage and high-power energy storage products to adjust the balance of power supply and demand. The specific analysis of each product is as follows:
A. Industrial and commercial energy storage products
Currently, domestic industrial and commercial energy storage is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang and other regions with high peak-valley price differences and developed industry and commerce. However, in the summer of the past two years, some industrial and commercial users in load center areas such as East China and South China have experienced power shortages in summer due to the impact of peak summer and orderly summer electricity consumption. At the same time, driven by the peak-valley electricity price policy and the reduction in the cost of energy storage systems, the demand for industrial and commercial users to deploy energy storage is gradually emerging.
B. Household energy storage products
The demand for household energy storage is concentrated in countries with high electricity prices, mainly the United States, Germany, Australia and Japan. Such countries and regions are accelerating the green transformation of energy, and household photovoltaics are expected to continue to receive greater policy support. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict further exacerbated the high fluctuations in energy prices. In the second half of 2021, wholesale electricity prices in Europe continued to rise rapidly, and new contract electricity prices for European residents also began to rise significantly accordingly, driving the rapid growth of overseas household energy storage demand.
C. High-power energy storage products
High-power energy storage product projects (power supply side and grid side) are the main force of domestic installation. According to the data of energy storage headlines, a total of 251 projects in my country's energy storage market completed bidding in 2023, with a total scale of 99.78GWh, covering EPC, PC, energy storage system, battery system, energy storage battery cell, etc. The top ten energy central enterprises, including State Electric Equipment, State Energy Group, China National Nuclear Corporation, China Energy Construction, State Power Investment, China General Nuclear Power, Huadian Group, Huaneng Group, Datang Group, and China Southern Power Grid, completed 56.05GWh of energy storage procurement bidding. From the perspective of bidding project types, independent energy storage projects may become the mainstream type of domestic energy storage installations in the future, injecting new growth momentum into the domestic energy storage market.
D. Energy Storage Inverter
The development speed of the energy storage industry largely determines the development speed of the energy storage inverter industry. From the perspective of hardware and production costs, the proportion of PCS costs in the energy storage system decreases as the power and capacity of the energy storage system increase. With the rapid expansion of small and medium-sized energy storage applications such as user-side and microgrids, system efficiency becomes very important when costs cannot be reduced through scale. The importance of PCS in improving system efficiency by improving the overall efficiency of energy storage systems and ensuring power quality is becoming more and more obvious. The marginal benefits brought by the iterative innovation of related technologies are gradually increasing, and the development speed of the energy storage inverter industry will be further accelerated on the original basis.
In the commercial scale exploration stage driven by the "dual carbon" target policy, the demand growth is driven by the grid side and the power generation side, driving the development of the energy storage industry, thereby promoting the development of the PCS industry. PCS technology is also developing in the direction of high power under the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
For more industry research and analysis, please refer to the "2023-2028 China Energy Storage Industry Market Status and Development Trend Forecast Report" of Sihan Industry Research Institute. At the same time, Sihan Industry Research Institute also provides industry research reports, feasibility reports, industrial planning, park planning, business plans, special surveys, architectural design, overseas investment reports and other related consulting service solutions.